As the devastating second wave of Covid hit India like a tsunami, apart from blowing away the abysmal medical infrastructure, it also has split asunder the leadership and governance in India - this will be an inflection point for the leadership of Prime Minister Modi.
This pandemic brought forth the collective callousness of all stakeholders - government, bureaucracy, health infrastructure as well as general public.
The ethos of the country is in general of indiscipline - mocking the power and the ubiquitous 'jugaad' to break the laws and finding ingenious corrupt ways to beat the system and of-course inherent schadenfreude.
What has happened in India in the last one month was nothing out of this world. What we are seeing is the inherent dichotomy what the rulers especially in a democracy like India would like to focus on, holding to power. On the other side is the ancient bureaucracy which does not want to take any decision nor has any accountability, as they are answerable only to the ruling class (politicians) whom they know how to manipulate and also know for sure that they will be thrown out of power every five years.
The systemic corrosion of this important piece in the governance and delivery value chain has brought forth a 'system' which is venal, corrupt, and has a "do not care a damn" attitude - basically a veritable mafia of bureaucrats and law enforcing agencies viz. police etc.
Ever since he snatched power from a family-run enterprise called Congress in 2014, Modi was trying to build a parallel style of leadership, bypassing the existing bureaucratic maze mainly through centralised power. At times also subventing his council of ministers. In the normal world this would be a good strategy, however, he met with a perfect storm - a once in a millennium event called Coronavirus - which has split his assumptions.
Let's step back and understand what is the policy and governance play in India. On the demand side are the people whom we call the Republic. They demand most of the social infrastructure but have been taught and ingrained by the erstwhile ruling regimes, mainly of Congress, that everything is free under the sun with the result that we have become a rent-seeking society.
On the supply-side there are two branches - one is the elected representatives of the government, and the other is the delivery mechanism which is the anarchic bureaucracy. Of the two branches, the deadlier one is the bureaucratic denizens as once they get into administrative service, nobody can throw them out. Also, the immense power they wield is unimaginable. At least the politicians have to go in front of the people every five years and seek/beg votes.
If one traces the origin of systematic corruption in India, it started in the 1980s. This was the time when the then Prime Minister of India, Indira Gandhi came back to power and immediately swung into action to take control of the judiciary, the police, and of course the famed Indian bureaucracy. She knew that if her rule had to survive these key levers would have to be under her control. Ever since her time, this became the template for all rulers who came after her and has become entrenched in the collective psyche of the country.
Against this backdrop, Modi extrapolated his experience as state chief minister and brought his own set of order-obeying bureaucrats from Gujarat into the halos of Lutyens Delhi.
In the first term, he tried to break the iron-clad grip of the bureaucratic culture in the South and the North Block, mainly through centralisation of power under the PMO. On the other hand, he concentrated on expanding the saffron footprints across the country and in each and every State. Municipal elections were fought with a messianic zeal, so much so that the entire party and the Council of Ministers were in mission mode to destroy the opposition from every state.
Fast forward to 2020 - that's where the perfect storm in the form of Coronavirus hit the world and slowly but surely engulfed India. With some luck and some raft decisions, India was able to weather the first storm. As it happens, in India by January this year everyone was chest-thumping and declaring victory over the virus. Then by March-end all hell broke loose. The double/triple mutation which had already entered India by end of last year was lurking to strike and it did!
Today, India stands at a crossroads, and the entire Healthcare sector which has always been given short shrift since past many decades is now bursting on its seams and is in tatters. This is what happens when you allocate a minuscule outlay to the most crucial sector and give piecemeal approach to the healthcare ecosystem.
Make no mistake, this is the culmination of all previous misgovernance and now the chickens have come home to roost.
However, going forward a profound shift will happen in India in terms of governance and the style of leadership of Prime Minister Modi. Technically he will have 24 months to get re-elected. Mathematically, if the elections are held today he could lose his job but since his party has an absolute majority, he still has two years to do the course correction.
So, he has two options - become like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and tone down his hubris or double down on his style which is more like Indira Gandhi's when she imposed the Emergency - the probability of the latter is higher!
What will he be? The best guess will be - put the pedal on the accelerator for all that was pending in the BJP manifesto when he returned to power in 2019. So, brace yourself and don't be surprised if we see a revised CAA, Uniform Civil Code, and fast-forwarding of many economic reforms, including laws to curb benami properties, etc.
If Modi makes a mental calculation that the era of a single party would be over in 2024, and a major chunk of vote bank from the middle and lower middle class will abandon him for mismanaging the Covid (which by the way he knows), the country will see a man on mission mode from 2022 with both eyes set on carving out a legacy for himself. He would like to be seen and remembered as much above 'The Family' i.e. Nehru and Indira Gandhi ,and knowing him, it has to be bigger and dramatic!
Chances are that he may get help from unknown sources, viz. China and Pakistan. If they try to fish in India's Covid cesspool and go for a limited conflict, then it will play into Modi's hands and give him the leeway which he may be looking for to grab back the major chunk of followers thinking of abandoning him.
He can reclaim the Hindu Hridyasamrat title but it will be more of Samrat and less of Hridaya, or he can turn tables on us and walk away to the caves of Himalayas as Bhishma Pitamah 2.0.
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